Why I Might Be £1080 Better Off This Time Next Year…

Okay, so I’m not sure how much tax you pay on bets, so my calculations may be a bit “off”. But last year, when my student loan came through, I decided to be brave and fork out £20 as a sort of long-term investment. If it doesn’t pay off, well, none of my 2010 income has been devoted to the failure, so I can write it off as the folly of a previous year.

I placed two £10 bets with Ladbrokes. One, I did as a hopeful safe bet.

For Sarah Teather to win Brent Central. I’ve always liked Sarah Teather, and would back her campaigning vigour and ferocity against (almost) anyone. So although last year the general “odds” were against her, I decided to put £10 on her winning Brent Central. Interesting, and a hopefully safe return on my money to leave with (at least) a £10 profit from my fiendish betting habit.

Oh, but you haven’t heard the best bit yet!

I put £10 on the Liberal Democrats winning 90-99 seats in 2010.

“What?” you shout, “What? Ninety to ninety-nine seats? For us? Madness!”

Well, yes, madness it might be. Especially at the time when I laid the bet, when the odds were 33/1. I mean, back then, the Liberal Democrats were being squeezed by the Tories, and people were predicting an absolute meltdown for us. Well, because I enjoy being contrary, it seemed the perfect time for me to place my bet.



How can I honestly believe we would do so well? Okay, no incredible mathematical decision has been made here. And I accept it is a tough ask. But if Labour continues to be unpopular, if the TV debates take place (and if we do well in them), if the media scrutiny of Cameron picks up to decent levels, if the Liberal Democrats benefit from the fair media coverage during an election, if our income tax policies gain enough ground and are seen as workable… if, if, if, if and many more huge ifs…

…then we could do it.

Make no mistake. The Liberal Democrats are in an incredibly strong position. I won’t brag that we are the cleanest of the three parties (we were, after all, still accused of some wrongdoing), but we should brag that we were the first mainstream party to call for a transparent Parliament. That should count for something.

We are the only Party committed to real, radical reform that would change the future of our country.

There is so much going for us that, at the General Election, the voters will be able to see more and more of.

I do not believe in a month of beaten, bruised Mondays that we will decrease our overall seats. If I was being realistic, I think we might get into the high seventies or the low eighties. But, but, but. If the perfect storm is created during the general election (which it could be), I think we might be able to climb as high as 90 – 99 seats.

My only dilemma now is whether or not I place another £10 on us gaining 100+ seats. Because I really don’t want to be in the situation where we have won 99 seats, but are still waiting for Newport East to be declared… eek!

So, this time next year, I might benefit from a £700 income tax cut + my £380 ( - tax) winnings from what is, I suppose, a sinful, wicked pastime (the gambling, not the progressive social reform that is our income tax policy).

Whether or not I then retire gracefully with my winnings, or use some of it to lay some ever more ridiculous bets, is another question entirely.

So, to the rest of you, which seats, and how many seats, are you putting your money on?