How the Liberal Democrats can win a majority, actually...

There’s been a lot of discussion about Howard Dean, claiming the Liberal Democrats could win a majority, or at the least that Nick Clegg could be Prime Minister. Well, I’ve put my thinking cap on, about how we might actually reach that target.

It’s difficult really, because I don’t know tonnes and tonnes about polling methodologies and weighting. But even a complete amateur like me can make a few diverting observations that are more fun than watching the news.

The lowest (I know they have gone lower, but let’s consider this the “normal” lowest for now) the Tories have gone in recent times is 31%. At the moment, the Conservatives are polling an average of 38%. Which gives, to my mind, 7% “softenable” vote that can be taken from the Tories.

The lowest Labour have gone is 22% - although such a position had not been seen, until last year, for over two decades. So, let us say the lowest “normal” vote for Labour is 24%. A fairly arbitrary figure I know, but for illustrative purposes, it is useful.

So, the current averages for the polls (from ukpollingreport): Conservatives 38, Labour 30, and the Lib Dems on 19.

Well, what follows is what could potentially happen to bring us within reach (in terms of votes, not, unfortunately, seats) of winning a General Election.

(election is called): media coverage begins to give more equal air time to the Liberal Democrats. We usually jump 3 or 4 points during an election. Now, what is interesting, is to compare our ICM poll results from previous to the 2005 General Election, to the ICM poll results we are seeing now.

Around the start of April 2005, we were polling 21%. It is interesting that in the poll for April by ICM today, we are polling 23%. Notice that the election has not been called yet, so we may still benefit from fair coverage during the campaign proper. Now, because we’ve been a bit more clever lately at fighting our corner, I am not sure if our poll results will still jump as much as 3 or 4. They may well do, but let’s be cautious and call our “general election boost” +2%. Where will that leave us around the start of the General Election? 25%.

Looking at the numbers from May, we can see that when we were last on 25%, Labour were languishing on 22% and the Tories were in the heady heights of the magic 40%. I doubt those numbers will be replicated. So instead, let’s turn to July 2004, when we polled 25%, Labour 35%, and the Conservatives 30%. Well, that means the Labservative share comes to 65%, when we stand at 25%.



So, to extrapolate from our most recent ICM poll, we could potentially see the following figures a short time into the next election:

Lib Dem: 25% Labour: 28% Conservative: 37%

That’s quite a strong showing already, but alas, as elections tend to do, voters would solidify around the two main parties, as is the accepted wisdom for a “change” election. But wait! There’s something new this time. Actually, some three things new.

15th April, ITV Leaders’ Debate: now, this has never happened before. We are not sure how or if at all, these debates will affect our showing. But I think we will do very well for them. And I am going to suggest that we gain 3% after the first debate, with the debate “payoff” reducing a little after each one, as voters adjust to seeing us on an equal footing with the other two. This could change if our leader makes a gaffe, or either of the other two make a gaffe, of course.

So, a few days after the first debate, you could potentially wake up to these poll results:

Lib Dem: 28% Labour: 28% Conservative: 34%

I know, it could be more likely that we gain Labour voters than Conservatives, but I am trying to be extremely cautious here. Well, as cautious as I can be whilst being wildly optimistic. Rather than hoping to be ahead of Labour just a while into the next election, let’s at least hope to be level with them. But anyway, just imagine how these scores would look to the voters. All of a sudden, it looks like a three-way fight. And that is just plain exciting!

22nd April, Sky: okay, so then we hit the next one. And I’m going to be incredibly unoptimistic, and suggest we only gain 1% from this poll, touching as it does upon foreign affairs and potentially the poison chalice of Europe. So imagine waking up a few days after that debate, with these numbers:

Lib Dem: 29% Labour: 27% Conservative: 34%

Jesus, all of a sudden we’re two points ahead of Labour in the polls, and Nick Clegg starts talking about the possibility of a Liberal Democrat government. All of a sudden, it doesn’t seem so stupid. I mean, the Conservatives are five points ahead, but Labour are starting to slide down, and the Liberal Democrats are offering real radical change. Radical tax policies, radical environmental policies, policies that by now are being spread across the entire country.

29th April, BBC: And there’s still one more debate. During which we will talk about our tax policies until we are blue in the face. So then, we close our eyes, and head out over the next few days to deliver more and more leaflets. Nick Clegg is on the radio, news presenters are talking about the potential “death of Labour”, people are talking about “thinking the unthinkable”. Something has changed in the election mood, and there is a real sense of movement from the Liberal Democrats.

And then a new poll hits us:

Lib Dem: 31% Labour: 25% Conservative: 34%

By now, Labour and the Tories are starting to foam at the mouth. The Tories are flinging Europe at us (ouch, meant the issue of Europe, not the whole continent, because that would hurt), but it doesn’t really wash, because it runs the risk of opening up Tory divisions on Europe. Maybe the Tories get rattled enough to start returning to their reflexive attitudes, similar to those under Howard? Labour are telling people that “a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for the Tories”, but that isn’t working either. Because now Nick Clegg can point at the numbers and say, “No. We are in second place. A vote for the Liberal Democrats is a vote for the Liberal Democrats.” Mud is being thrown left right and centre. They are panicking.
And slowly, polling day approaches, and we are just three points behind the Conservatives, and they are three points away from their “normal” lowest vote.

6th May, Polling Day: So imagine the unimaginable, and imagine exit polls that show the following:

Lib Dem: 34% Labour: 25% Conservative: 31%

Of course, then you have to fight the inherent imbalance in the political system. But if we obtained that result, and if (as it says according to ukpollingreport) we had the following seat allocations, then there would be real, serious questions about our democracy.

Lib Dem MPs: 148 Labour MPs: 235 Conservative MPs: 234

I know, it isn’t a majority.

So for fun, I tried to work out what we’d need for a majority, by firstly going to the limits of what Labour and the Conservatives have polled recently - Labour: 22%, Conservatives: 28% Lib Dems (as a result): 40%.

These “election” results are fun:

Labour: 151 seats. Conservatives: 162 seats. Lib Dems: 302 seats.

Imagine.

Now, I don’t think it is likely. I mean, by being really quite cautious, we reach a heady height by May 6th anyway. How could we manage to beat both the Labour Party and the Tory Party to their lower vote shares, in the space between the last debate and polling day?

And it is a challenge in itself to sustain the potential growth in our vote share. That would mean our Party would need to work to keep the poll result up in time for the next debate, then sustain that level in time for the last one. If we rise after one debate, then fall, then rise, then fall, we will not break through.

But all the same, the opportunity is there. This is the first time I have sat down and tried to imagine a cautious, gradual, but (at a stretch) achievable route to a strong second place (in vote share, not seat share). Then once you’ve reached that achievable strong second place in vote share, you sort of have to see how we could get to a majority (or as close to it as possible). And then you realise that actually, the jump from the lofty heights of the Liberal Democrats on 34%, and the Liberal Democrats on 40%, is not completely outside the realms of possibility.

And so when Howard Dean is laughed at for saying “There could be a Liberal Democrat Prime Minister”, you can smile. Because yes: he is reaching for the stuff of incredibly distant, far-away dreams. But for the first time in years, that stuff is out there to touch.

I suppose we just have to campaign for it.

And believe in it. Because yes, it is close to impossible.

But not completely impossible.